Business confidence has rebounded strongly over the past three months, recovering much of the ground lost during the depths of the Iran war shock, according to the Auckland Business Chamber’s August 2026 Business Confidence Survey.
The share of businesses rating overall confidence as negative or very negative has fallen from 54% in May to 40% in August, while positive sentiment has climbed from 15% to 26% over the same period. The proportion expecting the economy to decline over the next 12 months has more than halved, from 24% to 10%.
Simon Bridges, CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber, says the recovery tracks closely with the easing of the geopolitical shock that hit confidence earlier in the year.
“May was as much about what was happening on the other side of the world as it was about anything here at home. The strikes on Iran hit energy costs, inflation expectations and geopolitical risk all at once, and confidence took a real hit. Now, we’re seeing a genuine and encouraging bounce back.”
“This isn’t just relief. It’s businesses regaining the confidence to invest and hire again. That’s a real swing in three months.”
Investment and hiring intentions have both strengthened. Businesses planning to invest in the next 12 months rose from 50% to 59%, while those planning to hire jumped from 36% to 50% – a 14-point turnaround. Only 8% of businesses now expect to reduce headcount.
“The improvement isn’t confined to sentiment. The share of businesses reporting performance below expectations fell from 45% to 37%, actual revenue growth strengthened (31% to 38% reporting revenue up on a year ago), and more than half of businesses, up from 43% in May, now expect revenue to grow over the next 12 months.”
Energy affordability has also eased. The share of businesses finding energy costs unaffordable dropped from 55% to 48%, though it remains well above February’s 40% and continues to sit alongside expectations that costs will keep rising for 81% of businesses.
Cashflow pressures have improved markedly. The share of businesses reporting fewer customers paying on time fell from 48% in May to 29% in August – the most significant improvement of any indicator in the survey.
Consumer confidence and demand remains businesses’ single biggest concern, cited by 64% of respondents, higher than at any point this year, while inflation and interest rate anxiety has eased from 55% to 46%. Geopolitical and trade risk, which surged to 45% in May, has fallen back to 34% as the Iran conflict has receded from front-of-mind.
One concern still small in absolute terms but rising fast: AI adoption and digital transformation, up from 13% to 18%, a rise of about a third in three months.
“The message from this survey is that Auckland business is more resilient than the last three months might have suggested. Confidence can move fast in both directions – it fell hard when the world became uncertain, and it’s recovered hard now that some of that uncertainty has lifted. The task for government, whoever forms it after November, is to give businesses the stability to keep building on this.”
Key findings (May 2026 to August 2026)
Business confidence
- Negative/very negative: 54% to 40% (–14 pts)
- Positive/very positive: 15% to 26% (+11 pts)
Economic outlook (next 12 months)
- Economy will improve: 34% to 43% (+9 pts)
- Economy will decline: 24% to 10% (–14 pts)
Business performance and revenue
- Below expectations: 45% to 37% (–8 pts)
- Revenue up year-on-year: 31% to 38% (+7 pts)
- Expect revenue to increase: 43% to 52% (+9 pts)
Investment and hiring
- Planning to invest: 50% to 59% (+9 pts)
- Planning to hire: 36% to 50% (+14 pts)
Costs, energy and cashflow
- Expect costs to rise: 85% to 81% (–4 pts)
- Energy unaffordable: 55% to 48% (–7 pts)
- Fewer customers paying on time: 48% to 29% (–19 pts)
Top business concerns
- Consumer confidence and demand: 62% to 64% (+2 pts)
- Inflationary pressure and interest rates: 55% to 46% (–9 pts)
- Productivity and growth: 29% to 34% (+5 pts)
- International trade and geopolitical risks: 45% to 34% (–11 pts)
- Cashflow and accounts payable/receivable: 28% to 32% (+4 pts)
About the survey
The Auckland Business Chamber Business Confidence Survey was conducted between 17 and 31 August 2026 from businesses across Auckland. Respondents span all major industries and business sizes, with small businesses (1–50 employees) making up the majority of the sample.
